Chapter 1 Confirmation
Chapter 1 Confirmation
"Ah, they're finally going to war. I told you, even if these guys beg with snot, tears, and everything else running late, the Western big brothers won't forgive them. Thanks to that, I'm enjoying my oil long position nicely."
└Hello, I'm here on a pilgrimage.
└As expected of the Bear Hunter, though they talk casually, this person is the real deal. Never seen them wrong about Russia, for real.
└Are you Putin? National Intelligence Service, confess honestly!
"National Intelligence Service my foot. I'm someone who's already been investigated by them."
While comments flood in calling me the prophetic Bear Hunter or Putin de Nostradamus who saw the future, I can only sneer at such occult treatment.
It's Russia. That Russia. The stubborn bear-like country where the fundamentals never change even when political systems change, ideologies change, and regimes change.
People can change in 10 years, yet how does a country not change in 150 years?
Now even an individual like me has come to predict national directions.
"I hope no one's caught protagonist syndrome and is trying to short in this crazy natural gas graph?
The graph hasn't even started yet. If you're confident you won't shake in a magnitude 9.0 natural gas earthquake, go ahead and try, if not, just wait exactly one year. It'll crash terribly and then there'll be another chance to go long.
How do I know? Ha, because it's Russia. They'll definitely refuse to admit they're struggling, hold out, then beg everyone to buy cheap, and get sulky and raise prices again."
└Wow, I was waiting for the short timing after reading your previous post, but good thing I didn't.
└Get out of my head while you're saying nice things. This is your last warning.
└Brother, gas prices tripled from last year's price just one month into the war, how can I resist? If I hit even one out of five shorts, I could turn my life around.
└(Author) Go ahead. If you want to blow your entire fortune on the Russian earthquake.
I admit it. They can say such things because they don't understand Russian-style warfare yet.
They probably think it'll be a short war because it's modern warfare, and with Ukraine receiving robust Western support, it feels like Russia is fighting the whole world.
"But in Russia, disregard for human life is just traditional culture."
I typed on my laptop to write today's blog post.
"As I've said repeatedly, Russia's end to the war will be the same this time too. They'll celebrate it as victory, but in reality, they'll be crying their eyes out behind closed doors because they're more hurt than anyone.
Huh? Why will it end like that?
Because that's the promise (nods)."
└Haha, already promised to end it that way haha.
└Who did they promise? Is there such a treaty?
└Promised with the Japanese Environment Minister.
└It's a Slavic tradition passed down through generations. A victory without gain. A victory only for themselves. A victory no one else acknowledges. Usually when great powers get high on war, this country scrapes the bottom of national power through war and steals food.
A blog full of mockery and sarcastic comments. Though I posted it myself, the content is genuinely serious despite such internet public opinion.
My rising corner of the mouth couldn't quite turn into a smile at the usual reactions.
"Sigh, I'm really frustrated. I'm really frustrated about all of this."
Not being proactive and getting dragged along, then flipping the table when they don't like it later.
Diplomacy is originally like trade, a process of giving and receiving. It's a process where mutual national interests are generated.
However, Russia either recklessly gives bad debt they can't collect or sometimes swallows something without opening their own pocket.
Diplomacy that neither protects nor gains anything.
That's Russian-style diplomacy that's continued since the 19th century.
If diplomacy is like this, what about internal affairs? While every country's history has periods of prosperity and decline, this country's prime was the Soviet era when people could barely make a living, which says it all.
"It wasn't even a golden age. When America was painting with paint, this was a country painting with the blood of its people."
It's never been a normal country.
Common sense has never existed.
This country just seems to operate in its own way.
Yet why hasn't Russia collapsed?
Ah, historically, Russia has come close to collapse many times. Right away during Napoleon's time, and during Nazi times they almost lost their capital.
Just one reason.
Weight class.
They've made it this far purely on weight class alone. It's not that they did anything particularly well. They don't have any particular strengths.
Vast territory and population. That is, weight class. This country has survived until now on weight class advantage.
"Though commenting now on where Russia's current situation went wrong would be meaningless criticism, I still want to ramble about it.
This country's blunders have been endless from long ago, despite having potential no less than the United States.
You might think 21st century Russia can't even take Ukraine because of the Soviet Union that built an empire empty inside obsessed with ideology, but I want to trace back further.
I dare say, this country went wrong from the Imperial era."
"...Hmm."
Having typed on the keyboard as if possessed by some grudge up to here, I paused at the sentences and writing becoming too long.
At this rate, it won't gain empathy or persuasion even with 57,000 characters rather than 5,700.
So after moving the mouse to select everything written on the page and deleting it, I typed on the keyboard again.
Unlike before, very short and light.
"If you object, your bloodline is Slavic."
Hmm, it contains everything I wanted to say.
With a click, I upload it.
As always they'll tear it apart and laugh but I'm not confident I can summarize it more concisely than this.
Ding.
"Already got a comment."
└You think you would have been any different in that situation?
└(Author) Hi Ivan.
└I guarantee you wouldn't have been much different. No? Maybe even worse.
└(Author) Well noted, Tatar~
└You're finally crossing the line.
"What line crossing. Seems like you also know Russian history is a mess."
That's why they're getting heated while saying things like 'it couldn't be helped' to me.
Finally, I decided to give a sharp wrap-up.
└(Author) If it were me, it would have been different.
Unless I dropped right in the middle of a revolution and died immediately, it really would have been different.
As someone who has studied Russian history countless times, this much I can say with confidence.
Because as this commenter said, I've thought about 'what if it were me...' hundreds, thousands of times.
The guy who couldn't refute until the end was silent for a while. Just when I thought he ran away from the logical argument, a new reply appeared.
└Then let's confirm it.
Suddenly saying let's confirm, surely they're not trying to challenge me to a strategy simulation game? Besides that, how would they confirm?
"What confirmation-"
Just up to there. The words I was muttering to myself were cut off against my will.
And around when I felt the strength to make sound return to my mouth.
Before my words, a sound hits my ears.
"His Imperial Highness Tsesarevich Nikolai Alexandrovich Romanov, the legitimate heir and Crown Prince to His Imperial Majesty the Emperor!"
"We warmly welcome the distinguished guests. I am Prince Arisugawa Takehito, tasked with hospitality by command of His Majesty the Emperor."
Along with incomprehensible words, the other party slightly bows their head.
Though they seem older than me, since they bowed I also awkwardly responded by slightly bowing my head.
Then the Asian person in front of me becomes flustered.
But more than that, I became more flustered at the scenery that was just now entering my eyes.
"...Where is this?"
Waves crashing on the sea, a harbor wharf. A massive ship visible to the side.
And Asian people in uniforms with heads lowered in front of me.
Russian language. Japanese language. Japanese Imperial uniforms, and an iron ship. Finally, both sides' self-introductions remained clear in my ears. The words Crown Prince and Prince.
"Ah."
This is Crown Prince Nicholas II's Eastern journey.
The year, in my memory...
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